Weather system could bring wintry mess mid-week

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I am tracking the next weather system that could impact Hoosiers.  This is projected to reach Indiana Wednesday.

Computer model projection of radar/satellite imagery Wednesday afternoon.
Computer model projection of radar/satellite imagery Wednesday afternoon.

The system will start to move in to the state from the southwest, first spreading moisture in the way of clouds Wednesday morning.  An easterly wind will be undercutting the moisture, helping dry out the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The easterly wind will also help keep temperatures down.

At this time I think computer models are overdoing the warmth at the surface, calling for high temperatures in the low 40°s.  As of Sunday night, I am forecasting a high of 37° in Indianapolis.

As moisture falls in to dry air at the surface, this will allow for evaporative cooling, which could lead to a period of sleet and/or freezing rain for parts of central Indiana.  Depending on the timing, this could have an impact on Wednesday evening’s commute.

There remains several questions as to the timing, temperatures throughout the atmospheric column, and where dry air will be located.  Stay tuned to future forecasts as we narrow down the details.  You can also follow me on Twitter (@johndissauer) for additional updates.

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