Return of humidity and rain to the forecast

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It has been a pleasant start to the first weekend of August.  While temperatures were above normal – topping out in the middle/upper 80°s around central Indiana – the humidity has remained below normal for early August.  Dew point temperatures have fallen through the day in to the lower 50°s to around 60°.  Soak it up while you can because things are about to change.

Forecast dew point temperature during the afternoon.

You’ll likely notice a slight up-tick in humidity Sunday, but it will remain in check.  Dew points will climb to the upper 50°s to near 60°.  By Monday, and especially Tuesday, you will notice it feeling more like a typical summer day.  Dew points are forecast to climb back in to the middle/upper 60°s which should make it feel “muggly” once again.

Temperatures will also begin to climb.  Sunday I am forecasting a high of 88° in Indianapolis, up to 89° Monday, and in to the lower 90°s Tuesday.  It is even possible some areas could reach the mid-90°s Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front.

Forecast peak heat index.

Combine those air temperatures with the projected dew point temperatures and heat indices get back in to the 90°s for the start of the work week.

The aforementioned cold front will also bring some needed rain to some.  The front is projected to arrive in central Indiana late Tuesday afternoon and evening.  Ahead and along the front, showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop.

Computer model projection of radar/satellite imagery Tuesday evening.

It should be noted that over the last couple days, as we get closer to Tuesday, the computer models are starting to lower rainfall accumulation projections.  The models also appear to be suggesting more of scattered showers along the cold front, in other words… not everyone receiving rain.  This is not surprising as that is typically the trend in long and medium range computer models.  Stay tuned!

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