Record high temperatures, rain and chance for freezing rain this week

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What a great way to end the weekend!  Hoosiers deserve warmer weather after the cold final week of January.

Temperatures rose in to the 50°s and 60°s across central Indiana Sunday afternoon.  Indianapolis is making a serious run at setting a new record high temperature for the date.  The capital city has already tied the record set in 1992, 1937, and 1883, reaching 62° at 2:11 p.m.

2 p.m. Temperatures

We aren’t done with the warmth just yet.  Temperatures will climb back in to the 50°s Monday ahead of our next weather system.  There remains some question as to how warm we could get due to cloud cover and rain, but I think middle/upper 50°s is possible.

Forecast high temperatures Monday.

A cold front will pass through the state Monday evening.  Along with warmer temperatures the front will also bring showers to central Indiana.  The day should start out dry but the chance for rain increases for the afternoon and early evening.

Computer model projection of radar/satellite imagery Monday afternoon.

We aren’t looking at a lot of rain out of this.  A 29-computer model average suggests 0.11″ of rain will fall in Indianapolis through late Monday night.

Timing wise… Rain chances start to quickly ramp up as we approach noon Monday.  The probability of rain any any point between noon and 5 p.m. in Indianapolis is 50%-57%.

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We’re keeping an eye on late Tuesday night in to Wednesday morning.  Several days ago we first identified the possibility of a little freezing rain for northern areas for north-central Indiana.  This continues to look like a possibility.

Computer models suggest our next round of precipitation moves in to the state late Tuesday/early Wednesday morning.  Data suggests there will be a warm layer of air a couple thousand feet above the ground, so whatever falls from a higher altitude will melt, but temperatures at the surface will be in the lower/middle 30°s.  At this time we are forecasting a low temperature a low temperature of 35° in Indianapolis Wednesday morning.  That is obviously above freezing (32°F).  Areas north of Indy will be cooler with some potentially at or slightly below 32°.  That could cause problems as rain would freeze on the ground and other exposed surfaces.

Computer model projection of radar/satellite imagery and the 32° line at the surface.

In the above map you can see where one of our computer models project precipitation to be falling at 2 a.m. Wednesday.  Snow in the white/blue in Wisconsin/Michigan, wintry mix in the pink over Illinois/Michigan/northern Indiana/Ohio, and rain in the green, yellow and orange in Indiana/Illinois.

I have also drawn a pink solid line where a computer models projects the 32° line to be at surface.  That means along and north of the line temperatures will be at/below freezing.  As rain falls in the environment where computer models have rain and temperatures are at/below freezing at the surface freezing rain will be possible.

There are still a few days to sort this out.  There is growing trend in the computer models to move the colder air at the surface further north, which would take out the chance for freezing rain.  Be sure to keep up with later forecasts!

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