Rain returns mid-week and for Halloween

Weather
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Central Indiana could use a couple of dry days after the drenching that fell Saturday.  Most of central Indiana received 1″+ of rain, and some areas picked up 2″+.  We should have a couple of mainly dry days before rain returns Wednesday.

Lets identify where the energy that will produce the rain is located.  The upper-level energy is located over west-central Canada near Edmonton as of Sunday evening.

The energy will travel down the Rock Mountains and eventually move northeast through the central Plains.  An upper-level low pressure area is projected to develop over the north-central Plains, with a surface low developing over the middle Mississippi River Valley Thursday.  Ahead of the surface low, winds will be brisk out of the southwest, allowing warmer air to flow up in to the Ohio River Valley.

Computer model projection of upper-level winds and low-level winds Thursday morning.

The southwesterly winds at the surface through the upper-levels of the atmosphere will help draw moisture up out of the Gulf of Mexico.  The moisture will eventually run in to a cold front which will help to lift the moisture, eventually developing rain.

Computer model projection of radar/satellite imagery.

At this time it looks like Wednesday and Thursday will be wet days because of this.  Some of the heavier rains may fall Thursday morning in to Thursday afternoon.  Long-range computer models suggest parts of central Indiana could receive in excess of 1″ of rain through Thursday evening.

Computer model projection of precipitation accumulation through Thursday evening.

EARLY LOOK AT HALLOWEEN

As you can see from above, Thursday looks like a wet day.  It also looks like it will be windy.  Ghosts and witches on broomsticks may face difficult flying conditions for Trick-or-Treating Thursday evening.

At this time it appears that temperatures will quickly fall late Thursday afternoon/evening.  Temperatures could drop from near 60° to the upper 40°s to low 50°s by evening.  Factor in winds gusting 30+ mph and it is going to feel cold.  Stay tuned!

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