Quick shot of snow before rain returns to central Indiana

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The hits keep coming to central Indiana.  Our next weather system is beginning to form in the central United States Saturday and will spread moisture in to central Indiana Sunday.

Computer model projection of radar/satellite imagery.

The initial wave of precipitation will fall as a wintry mix of mainly snow and sleet will be possible over south-central Indiana.  That will quickly change over to all snow as it moves in to the I-70 corridor.  The band of snow is projected to continue moving east.

At this time this system does not look to be a significant snow maker.  An inch or two of snow is possible, mainly north of I-70, through Sunday evening.

Projected snowfall through Sunday evening.

A six computer model average suggests the following snowfall accumulation through Sunday evening:

  • Bloomington: 0.4″
  • Columbus: 0.5″
  • Indianapolis: 0.8″
  • Lafayette: 0.9″
  • Muncie: 1.2″
  • Terre Haute: 0.6″

I am also watching the potential for a little freezing rain mixing in with the wintry mix over the south-central Indiana.  When it comes to freezing rain a couple tenths of a degree at various altitudes of the atmosphere can play a significant role.

Projected ice accretion.

A couple computer models have Bloomington, Columbus, Bedford and Seymour on the edge of having a little freezing rain late Sunday morning.  While I am not expecting much ice accretion, even a little can make things slick.

The image above is the forecast ice accretion from the North American Mesoscale computer model.  This computer model is known to often over-play weather events, so take it with a grain of salt, but you can see how it tries to put down a small amount of freezing rain.  It is something to keep an eye on Sunday morning.


Rain will move back in to central Indiana late Sunday night in to Monday morning and will fall through Tuesday.  This isn’t something many Hoosiers need following last week’s rain.

Forecast rainfall accumulation through Tuesday morning.

Medium-range computer models project 1″ to 2.5″ of rain possible for portions of the state.  Most models are targeting the southern half of the state for the highest amounts.

An areal Flood Watch is in effect 1am Monday through 7am Tuesday.

Because of the projected rain coming to the state, and the already saturated ground/rivers, the National Weather Service has issued an areal Flood Watch for the counties shaded in green (see above map).  The watch will be in effect from 1am Monday through 7am Tuesday.

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