First accumulating snow of season could impact Monday commute

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Everything continues to look on track for a winter-mess in central Indiana for the start of the work week.  A cold front is passing through the state Sunday evening through Monday morning.  Behind the cold front, much colder air will filter in changing rain over to snow.

It still looks like we will have light rain showers around central Indiana for the morning commute.

Computer model projection of radar imagery Monday morning.

Temperatures will dropping from the 40°s to the 30°s from northwest to southeast.  As temperatures throughout the atmospheric column drop below freezing, rain will begin to change over to snow.  It appears the changeover will begin happening between noon and 1 p.m. in the Indianapolis metro – with it happening earlier on the northwest side and later on the southeast side.

Computer model projection of radar imagery Monday afternoon.

As the cold air moves southeast, more of central Indiana will be under snow showers during the afternoon.  All of the CBS4 viewing area should be all snow for the evening commute.

Computer model projection of radar imagery at 5 p.m. Monday.

Snow will start to come to an end by early evening (northwest) and by midnight (southeast).  Arctic air will grab hold behind the snow, dropping temperatures that will be cold enough to threat record low temperatures.  More information on the cold air coming in behind Monday’s system can be found in my article from Saturday.


I have made some minor tweaks to the snow forecast.  Computer models are coming in a little heavier with the amount of liquid available to produce snow along with forcing in mid-levels of the atmosphere, which could aid in a period of heavier snow.

Generally speaking, most of central Indiana should pick-up 1″ to 2″ of snow.  As of Sunday evening, it appears there could be an area that could receive 2″ to 3″ of snow and some isolated pockets up to 4″ is not out of the question.

There remains several questions in regards to how much snow will accumulate – Ground temperature? How quickly does the changeover occur?  Timing of the cold air?  Does the origin of the cold air help to fluff up the snow?

While this storm is not expected to produce high snow totals, with this being the first snow of the year, the timing of the snow, and drivers not used to driving in the snow the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the counties shaded in purple in the map below.  The advisories are in effect from 10 a.m. to 8 p.m. Monday.

How much is forecast to accumulate is subject to change as more data becomes available.  Be sure to check back for updates both online and on-air.

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