Cold front brings chance for a few storms Tuesday night

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A cold front is located west of Indiana Tuesday evening.  Ahead of the cold front, the air mass remains summer-like with temperatures in the 80°s, dew point temperatures in the upper 60°s to lower 70°s, and heat indices in the upper 80°s to around 90°.

Ahead of the cold front a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible.  Computer models suggest the best chance for storms will be later tonight, near the cold front in northern Illinois and northern Indiana.

Computer model projection of radar/satellite imagery.

I think the best chance for severe storms will be in northern Illinois and the northern quarter of Indiana.  That being said, a few strong thunderstorms will remain possible through around 11 p.m. Tuesday night.

Day 1 convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.

While the Storm Prediction Center includes much of central Indiana in a “Slight Risk” for severe storms through 8 a.m. Wednesday, in-house studies of “Slight Risk” convective outlooks shows that only 1 in 5 “Slight Risks” produce severe weather in central Indiana.

Behind the cold front drier, cooler air will begin to filter in to central Indiana.  We should have lots of sunshine and lower humidity for the rest of the work week.

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