6:30pm Saturday Hurricane Dorian Update

Weather
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Data pix.

The 5 p.m. Saturday update from the National Hurricane Center keeps Hurricane Dorian as a category 4 hurricane.

The storm has 150 mph sustained winds and wind gusts up to 185 mph.  The hurricane is slowly moving to the west at 8 mph.

As Dorian moves westward it will be moving over even warmer water than it is currently located.

Satellite imagery with sea surface temperatures.

Right now sea surface water temperatures are around 84°.   As it moves further west towards the Bahamas it will encounter even warmer water to potentially fuel some strengthening of the storm.  Water temperatures closer to the Bahamas are in the middle to upper 80° range.  Truly bath water.

National Hurricane Center forecast track as of 5 p.m. Saturday.

The storm is projected to slow down its forward speed.  As it slows down over the Bahamas the latest track calls for Dorian to begin a right-hand turn early Monday morning.

While the center of the forecast track keeps the eye of the hurricane off the coast of Florida it is important to note that the "cone of uncertainty" does include much of the Florida Atlantic coast.  That means a Florida landfall is still at play for Dorian.

If the hurricane does stay off the coast, the impacts on eastern Florida will not be as bad.  Computer models, which keep the storm off the coast, keep the Florida coast on the left side of the hurricane.  That is oftentimes the "weaker" side of the storm.

Probability of hurricane force winds.

The latest data from the National Hurricane Center suggests there is a 30%-50% probability of hurricane force winds reaching the Atlantic coast of Florida, near Melbourne.

The probability is much higher for tropical storm force winds where the probability is 40% as far west as Tampa and Naples and 90%+ from West Palm Beach to Daytona Beach.

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