Data model predicting 6,000 Hoosier deaths from coronavirus by August

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INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. — As parts of the country begin to reopen, new data shows there could be a spike in the number of COVID-19 deaths and cases, including right here in Indiana.

Public data from The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasts the U.S. will see nearly 135,000 deaths by the beginning of August due to COVID-19.

The IHME model is projecting more than 6,000 Hoosiers will die from the coronavirus by August.

IHME base their data around the fact that parts of the country are loosening up restrictions on social distancing and changes in mobility.

In Indianapolis, Regenstrief Institute Director of Public Heath Informatics Dr. Brian Dixon said these models are the best estimates, or sometimes just guesstimates, that organizations can come up with for the future.

“They may not get that high. Often times, when we make estimates about cases or deaths, there’s what we call a confidence interval around that. So the number could be a little bit higher than the forecast, or it could be lower than the forecast,” said Dixon.

Dr. Dixon said every model is different. He adds that depending on how well Hoosiers follow guidelines and practice social distancing could make a difference in the number of projected deaths.

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