After a violent end to last week, our attention is already turning to a new storm system that could very well lead to another severe weather outbreak across the region. This will come Tuesday into Wednesday. Again, this is the time to prepare in advance and make sure you and your family have gone over your severe weather safety plan.
Mild with spotty showers Monday
We are starting off the week mild and mostly quiet. However, a few showers have been moving through our southern counties Monday morning. Hit and miss showers will continue in the area through the day but there will be a lot of dry time too. Winds turn breezy out of the south this afternoon and temperatures will be rising to near 70°.
A few spotty showers and storms will remain possible tonight and a stronger to severe storm with gusty winds or hail is possible.
Severe storm threat
Our risk for severe storms ramps up for Tuesday and Wednesday. On Tuesday, the more favorable dynamics for severe weather will be to our west, in western Illinois and eastern Iowa. However, the chance for severe storms does include Indiana. Working in our favor is that the atmosphere looks like it will be highly capped that day. This means, Convective Inhibition will be acting like a lid on the atmosphere, keeping storms from developing. However, with temperatures that will reach into the upper 70s and lower 80s on Tuesday, along with sunshine, there will be plenty of energy available for storms to develop, should we overcome the cap. In that case, storms would be able to grow rapidly and potentially become severe.
However, Wednesday is looking to be the more favorable day for our severe weather potential. Much like last Friday, our best chance to see strong and severe storms will come ahead of a cold front sliding through the state. A broken line of storms will arrive Wednesday morning and storm chances will continue into the evening. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with storms that develop from Tuesday through Wednesday, however, large hail and the chance for tornadoes remain in the mix as well. Continue to check back as we get more data and fine tune this forecast.