There is a very small rain/storm chance this evening for south-central Indiana. This will be driven by the heat of the day near the frontal boundary. There’s a better chance for storms Thursday ahead of a cold front. Thursday will be a very humid and warm day with dew point temperatures surging into the 70s and heat index values rising to the low and mid 90s. A few thunderstorms are possible during the morning but the primary concern for severe weather comes in the afternoon, ahead of the front. Damaging winds and large hail with be the primary threats with these storms, but a rotating storm can’t be ruled out. The eastern 2/3rds of the state will see the best dynamics for severe weather but all should be weather aware for severe storm potential.
Friday will be the best day of the week. In the wake of the cold front, temperatures will drop and humidity will be lower this weekend. So far the month of July has been mild and wet, with temperatures 0.4° below average, and precipitation 2.15″ above average. The 8-14 day outlook is indicating a strong probability for above average temperatures to return for the last week of July.
We’ll have a risk for severe storms Thursday.
Heavy rain is likely Thursday morning and again on Thursday evening.
After a dry start to the summer, July has been a wet month so far.
Temperatures and humidity will be more comfortable this weekend.