First accumulating snow of the season followed by near-record cold

Data pix.

A series of cold fronts are projected to pass through central Indiana, bringing colder shots of air to the Hoosier state.

The first front will pass Monday afternoon and evening.  The main thing you will notice from this front is slightly cooler air along with winds shifting to the north.

The second cold front will be much more potent.  Ahead of the front, moisture will slide in to the state, first in the form of rain.  The cold front will be over northern Indiana for the Monday morning commute, so at this time, I do not expect any issues from the weather.

Computer model projection of radar imagery Monday morning.

As we go through the day, colder air will continue to spill southward through the state.  As the colder air mixes with the moisture, rain will begin to change over to a winter mix, then eventually all snow.  Latest forecast data suggests the changeover begins to happen in the Indianapolis area around noon Monday.

Computer model projection of radar imagery Monday afternoon.

All rain will have changed over to snow for the Monday evening commute.

Computer model projection of radar imagery Monday evening.

FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON

As of Saturday night, I think areas around Indianapolis and south could receive up to an inch of snow, some locations north of the 465 could receive 1" to 2" and a couple 3" amounts are not totally out of the question.

With this being the first snow of the year, and there is the potential for snow to be falling during the evening commute, this could cause for a slower drive home Monday.  Everyone will have to get acclimated to driving in the slush/snow.

SIBERIAN AIR MIGRATING SOUTH

Cold air is on the move and is expected to arrive in Indiana Tuesday morning.  How cold?  Temperatures could be 25° to nearly 30° below normal.

We can track the path of the cold air and see where it originated.  Look at the below map and you can see last Tuesday morning the parcels of air were just moving off the Siberian coast over the East Siberian Sea.

The air hung out over the Arctic Ocean for a couple days before making landfall in far northern Canada Saturday morning.  The air will turn south and take aim on Minnesota, Wisconsin and Indiana.

I also want you to notice what the air is running over.  The colors you see on the map indicates the amount of snow on the ground as of Saturday morning.  This means that the air will be running over a cold snow pack, not allowing the air to moderate before reaching the United States.

TAKING AIM ON RECORD TEMPERATURES

I am tracking two temperature records that could be in jeopardy.

  1. The record low temperature is 14° Tuesday morning.  Our forecast is for a low temperature of 15°.
  2. The record low minimum high temperature Tuesday is 26°.  We are currently forecasting a high temperature that would break the record.

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