Cold front to bring chance of rain for some, not all

A cold front over the northern United States will arrive in Indiana Tuesday afternoon/evening.  The front will bring a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.

As mentioned yesterday, a trend in the medium-range computer models has been noted.  The trend is to back off the aerial coverage of the rain, along with the amounts.  That trend continues with Saturday night’s and Sunday morning’s computer model runs.

Computer model projection of radar/satellite imagery Tuesday afternoon.

Computer model projection of radar/satellite imagery Tuesday afternoon.

I do not think everyone in central Indiana will receive rain Tuesday.  I believe the best chance for rain will come for areas north of I-70.  Areas further south, towards Bloomington to Greensburg, may not see much rain, if any at all.

Computer model projection of precipitation accumulation through Wednesday morning.

Computer model projection of precipitation accumulation through Wednesday morning.

Computer models are all over the board when it comes to how much rain will fall.  The range is 0.11″ to 1.43″ through Wednesday morning.  The map above shows numbers that are in the middle of the spread.

RAINFALL NEEDED

Portions of Indiana have turned very dry over the last month.  Data from the Midwest Regional Climate Center shows Montgomery, Fountain and Warren counties are over 2″ below normal for July 1 through August 3.

The lack of rain in parts of Indiana have prompted the team at the United States Drought Monitor to include parts of the state in an “Abnormally Dry” category.

That is incredible considering the amount of rain that fell in the first half of the year.  Much of the state had 2″ to 9″ more rainfall than the 30 year normal through May 31.

There will be another chance for rain Thursday.  At this time it looks like that round of rain could favor the southern half of the Hoosier state.

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