Potential for strong to severe storms Wednesday evening

Data pix.

A cold front will pass through central Indiana Wednesday night. Before the front passes, a few rounds of rain and thunderstorms will be possible.

While there will be a chance for a few thunderstorms between 3 a.m. and 9 a.m. Wednesday morning, the threat for strong and severe thunderstorms comes late Wednesday afternoon into the evening.

The potential for severe weather late Wednesday afternoon and evening is partly dependent on getting dry time late morning and early afternoon. This will allow skies to turn partly to mostly cloudy and recharge the atmosphere with instability.

Computer model projection of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) Wednesday afternoon.

As the cold front approaches central Indiana late Wednesday afternoon, computer models are suggesting a line of thunderstorms begin moving from northeastern Illinois in to northern Indiana. As the line moves south, it could gain forward speed and momentum.

Computer model projection of radar/satellite imagery 6 p.m. Wednesday.

The line is projected to move south across the Hoosier State through the evening. This specific run of our in-house high-resolution computer model suggests the line of storms moving through the Indianapolis metropolitan area between 6 p.m. and 7:30 p.m.

Computer model projection of radar/satellite imagery 8 p.m. Wednesday.

The line of storms will eventually reach the Ohio River by Wednesday night.

Typically when computer models suggest this shape to the line, or when we see this shape on radar, damaging winds is the main threat. While hail will be possible from some storms, I do think wind will be the primary threat.


Computer model projection of power outage potential through 10 p.m. Wednesday.

Our high-resolution computer model has the ability to look at the threat for wind and apply it to the power grid, giving projections of power outage coverage may look like. The model is suggesting mainly isolated to scattered power outages for most of central Indiana. However, it does take increase the power outage potential in southeast Indiana.

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