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Chance for storms Saturday night; Changes for second half of weekend

Data pix.

A cold front is entering the Midwest and will pass through the Hoosier state Saturday night.  Ahead of the cold front, and along a stationary front over northern Indiana, thunderstorms have flared up in the late afternoon heating.

Instability is projected to slightly increase through this evening, mainly over the northern half of the state.

The cold front will provide lift and the instability will aid thunderstorms to rise in to the sky.  With a ripe environment for thunderstorms the Storm Prediction Center has placed the majority of central Indiana in a "Slight Risk" for severe storms.

The main threat from thunderstorms will be damaging wind.

There is a 15% probability of a 58+ mph wind gust in the area shaded in yellow according to the Storm Prediction Center.

While the Storm Prediction Center includes much of central Indiana in the risk for severe thunderstorms through 8am Sunday, I think the area with the best chance for stronger thunderstorms will be northern of Indianapolis - closer to a line along/north from Anderson to Crawfordsville.

The best chance for severe thunderstorms will be between 8pm and 11pm over the area mentioned.

Computer model projection of radar/satellite imagery Saturday night.

As we get later in to the night, I think the threat for severe thunderstorms begins to reduce.

The cold front will continue moving southeast across the state.  At times, a few showers and thunderstorms may develop along the front, but notice in the below image, our high resolution Futureview computer model suggests not everyone seeing thunderstorms.  I tend to agree with the computer model.

Computer model projection of radar/satellite imagery.

Once the front passes, winds will shift to the northwest and drier/cooler air will begin to infiltrate central Indiana.  Dew point temperatures - the measure of the moisture in the air - will go from today's low 60°s to the 40°s Sunday afternoon.  So it should feel very pleasant for the end of the weekend.

Forecast high temperatures Sunday afternoon.



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