One more dry day before rain returns

There will be another dry day before our rain chances increase.  Monday will bring increasing clouds to the area.  Winds shift out of the south-southwest, allowing temperatures to climb in to the middle-70°s around central Indiana.

Temperature forecast Monday.

WEEKENDS CAN’T CATCH A BREAK

What a bad run we’ve had on weekends.  Since the beginning of the year we have had precipitation 15 out of 18 weekends in Indianapolis.  This weekend is the 13th consecutive weekend the capital city has recorded precipitation – a streak that started February 2nd and 3rd.

Indianapolis has recorded 18.25″ of precipitation for 2019.  That is now 5.11″ of precipitation above normal for the year to date (May 5).  That ranks 17th wettest since 1872.

RAIN RETURNS

A cold front will approach central Indiana Tuesday.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead and along the front.  While rain will be possible throughout the day, it will not be all day rain.

Computer model projection of radar/satellite imagery Tuesday afternoon.

Unfortunately, it appears that there will not be enough momentum for the front to fully clear central Indiana.  That means it will hang around the area Tuesday evening and for the start of Wednesday.  The front will lift back to the north/northeast as a warm front Wednesday morning.  Along the warm front, rain and a few thunderstorms could develop.

Computer model projection of radar/satellite imagery at 3pm Wednesday.

Once the front clears the area, it should dry out for several hours late Wednesday morning and afternoon.  Winds will swing around to the south, pumping up warmer and more humid air.  If the rain holds off until later Wednesday, which is currently forecast, temperatures could climb in to the middle and upper 70°s.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop later Wednesday evening and sweep through the area.

Computer model projection of radar/satellite imagery Thursday morning.

Thursday brings the best chance for widespread rain to the Hoosier state as another cold front approaches the state.  This front should have enough momentum to clear through the state late Thursday night/early Friday morning, drying things out for Friday afternoon.

Computer model projections of rainfall through Thursday evening range from 0.86″ to 1.25″.  That means fields will likely remain wet for farmers this week.

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