Heavy rain arrives for second half of weekend

A storm is strengthening as it moves over the southern United States Saturday afternoon.  This storm will bring rain to central Indiana late Saturday night through Sunday evening.

Area of low pressure is moving northeast through Texas Saturday evening.

The center of low pressure at the surface is located in northeast Texas.  Ahead of the area of low pressure, thunderstorms are moving across east Texas, southern Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi.  There have been seven reports of tornadoes from Texas to Louisiana as of 7pm Saturday.

Initially the storm will send additional clouds to central Indiana.  That started earlier today and will continue this evening.  Rain is projected to start moving in to central Indiana as early as 9am.  Rain will first start to fall in the southwest corner over the CBS4 viewing area (Bedford).  The rain will continue to spread east through the night.

Computer model projection of radar/satellite imagery at 11pm Saturday.

Rain could be heavy at times overnight, especially south of Indianapolis.  A few embedded thunderstorms will also be possible – mainly south of Indianapolis.

Computer model projection of radar/satellite imagery at 5am Sunday.

I think the rain will begin to taper off – west to east across central Indiana – after sunrise, leading to several dry hours Sunday.  However, as there is a little heating during the early afternoon, especially over the southeastern part of the state, scattered thunderstorms will be possible.  You can see that depicted on the next image from our in-house RPM high-resolution computer model.

Computer model projection of radar/satellite imagery at 3pm Sunday.

As the low moves out Sunday evening, enough cold air could start to move in from the northwest to allow for a few snowflakes to fall.  The best chance for that will be along and north of a line from Muncie to Crawfordsville.

RAINFALL WILL ADD UP

Heavy rain overnight could drop an inch of rain along and east of I-69 by 8am Monday.  Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms could add to the totals through the rest of the day.

Computer model projection of rainfall accumulation through Sunday night.

A 30-computer model average suggests 1.45″ of rain falling in Indianapolis through Sunday night.  The range of rainfall accumulation from various computer models is 1.17″ to 1.59″.

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