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Cold temperatures hang on much of this week; Tracking next chance for snow

Another cold night coming for central Indiana as temperature dip in to the single digits and wind chill values go below zero.

Even with partly cloudy skies at times, temperatures should drop pretty quickly tonight.

Forecast low temperatures Tuesday morning.

While it will be cold, it should get as cold as it was early Monday morning where temperatures fell to near 0°.

Forecast low temperatures Tuesday morning.

Winds will remain up - sustained 7 to 14 mph - through Tuesday morning.  This should allow wind chill values to drop as low as -15° to -5° by sunrise, so you and the kids will want to bundle  up if you plan on going outside.

Computer model projection of wind chill values Tuesday morning.

The "feels like" temperature (wind chill) will struggle to reach double digits - above zero - Tuesday afternoon.

A weak cold front will pass through the area during the early afternoon.  It is possible a few snow showers may develop just ahead of the cold front, especially in eastern portions of central Indiana.  I am not expecting any accumulation from snow that falls.

You may notice the winds shifting a little more to the northwest after the front passes.  This will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air to the area, so don't be surprised if temperatures drop a couple degrees by late afternoon.

COLD TEMPERATURE FACTOIDS

  • Indianapolis dropped to 2° Monday morning.  This ties the record low temperature for March 4 set in 1871.

  • 2° Monday morning was also the coldest temperature recorded during the month of March in the capital city since March 6, 2015.

This was the coldest temperature Indianapolis has reached since January 31, 2019.

COLD WEATHER TO CONTINUE

We are 1/3 of the way through a substantial cold spell.  Temperatures won't make it above freezing until Thursday afternoon.  In fact, this could be the coldest March 4-6 since 1960 if our forecast verifies.  Our forecast average temperature today through Wednesday is 13.3°.  Assuming this works out it would also rank the 2nd coldest March 4-6 as noted by the dates below.

Coldest Average Temperature in Indianapolis March 4-6 (1871-2018)

  1. 1960: 8.2°
  2. 1978: 19.2°
  3. 2015: 19.5°
  4. 1890: 20.7°
  5. 1901: 21.2°

NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW

Our next chance for measurable snow looks to come Thursday as a quick moving system passes over the southern 2/3 of the state.  At this time there remains considerable uncertainty as to how much will fall but know we've got a chance for snow, especially over south-central Indiana.

Computer model projection of radar imagery Thursday evening.

BRINGING 50°s BACK

Long range computer models continue to suggest warmer temperatures returning to central Indiana this weekend.  While temperatures will be warmer - in the 50°s - how much you will be able to get outside and enjoy the 50°s is up for debate.

Data suggests warmer air surging in to the state late Saturday in to early Sunday before falling off as a cold front passes Sunday.  At this distance it appears temperatures will fall back in to the 40°s Sunday afternoon.  Stay tuned!

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