Quick moving weather system brings chance for rain and snow for Monday morning commute

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We're keep an eye on a fast developing weather system that could spread a little rain, wintry mix, and snow to central Indiana for the Monday morning commute.

This is fast developing as computer models did not pick up on it yesterday, last night or even this morning.  The Sunday afternoon computer model runs were the first to suggest an area of low pressure developing over northern Arkansas and southern Missouri this evening.

The low is going to spread moisture in to Illinois, Indiana and Ohio with it as it tracks near the Ohio River Valley over the next 24 hours.

For most of central Indiana this is going to produce light rain after midnight through Monday morning.  Where it gets tricky is along and just north of I-70.

Computer model projection of radar/satellite imagery Monday.

Computer models were a little cool with Sunday morning's temperatures.  For instance, the low temperature in Indianapolis was 38°.  Computer models had suggested it would be anywhere from 34°-39°.  For the most part the models were too cool.  (The European was closest.)  The same with the afternoon temperature.  Models projected the high temperature would be between 40° and 42°.  The high temperature ended up being 45°.  So we know the computer models are running a little too cool with their projection of the atmosphere.  This is important to note as we need to look at the atmospheric column to get an idea of what type of precipitation will be falling.

Looking at short range, high-resolution data suggests temperatures at the surface will remain above freezing (32°F) in Indianapolis Monday morning.  Computer model projections are anywhere from 32° to 36°.  We are forecasting 34°.  Knowing the computer models are running a little too cool, I think we can throw out 32° by morning.  That means whatever falls should melt at the surface.

Data also suggests temperatures remain slightly above freezing in the lower 1,000 to 1,100 feet of the atmosphere.  Once you get above that level temperatures drop below 32°F.  This makes it a difficult call.  Moisture will be falling as snow aloft, but as it gets close to the ground it may start to melt.  In other words, it would be a wet snow along the northern edge of the moisture moving for the morning.

As to how much... I don't think there will be much - if any - accumulating on the ground.  I think at best we are looking at a dusting of snow for some locations just north of the I-70 corridor.

A dusting of snow is possible Monday morning for areas shaded in blue.

If there will be snow, it should fall between 5am and 9am before changing back over to rain and quickly moving out.


Weather in the central United States looks quiet for Wednesday as millions of people travel for Thanksgiving.

A cold front coming off the Pacific Ocean will bring rain to the west coast.  A clipper coming out of Canada looks to bring a chance for snow for parts of Pennsylvania, New York, and New England states Wednesday evening.  At this distance, this should not bring enough snow to cause issues for airports.

You can check travel conditions around the U.S. and flight delays by using our CBS4 holiday flight delay travel tool.

It is looking like Thursday should also be nice.  Mostly sunny skies in the Midwest.  Cooler temperatures to the northeast/east.  Warmer to the west/southwest.

Long range computer models suggest a strong weather system could bring rain, snow, wind, and colder temperatures to the Midwest after next weekend.  It is something we will keep watching.  Stay tuned!

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