Tracking severe storm potential to start work week

Showers and thunderstorms return to central Indiana Monday afternoon.

A weather system - located in the central Plains Sunday evening - will approach the Hoosier state Monday.  A warm will lift through the state late Monday morning through early evening.  Ahead and along the warm front showers and thunderstorms will be possible.

Computer model projection of radar/satellite imagery.

A few showers will be possible mid/late morning near the Indiana/Illinois state line.  Thunderstorms are expected to develop over central Indiana during the early afternoon.  A few of these thunderstorms may be strong to severe.  The line will continue to move to the east/northeast through late afternoon and in to the evening.

Another line of thunderstorms may develop over central Illinois during the afternoon.  These will move east in to central Indiana during the late evening/night.  A few of these thunderstorms may be strong to severe.

Area with best chance for severe storms is highlighted in brown.

At this time, I think the window for strong to severe storms in central Indiana is between 2 pm and 9 pm Monday.  After looking over data I have highlighted areas where I think the highest chance for severe storms reside (see above image).

The "best" chance is roughly from Champaign, Illinois to Terre Haute to  Evansville (brown).  Outside of that, a few strong to severe storms may fire in the area highlighted in yellow.

The main threat from storms will be damaging wind.  However, I can't rule out the chance for hail or an isolated tornado as the warm front lifts through the state.

DRIER AIR COMING

Refreshing air is on the way!  A cold front will pass through the area Tuesday night in to Wednesday morning.  Behind the front, drier air will begin to filter in to the state.  That means dew points will go from the upper 60°s to near 70° Monday and Tuesday to the 50°s Wednesday and Thursday.  This will allow for high temperatures to be in the 70°s and morning lows in the lower/middle 50°s.  Prepare to open the windows!

NOT DONE WITH THE HEAT

As we've been suggesting, we are not done with summer heat.  Long range computer models suggest heat comes builds back in to the state for the weekend.

Upper-level "hot dome" projected to return to the Ohio River Valley by next weekend.

It won't only be Indiana dealing with the heat.  Computer models suggest a "hot dome" in the upper-levels of the atmosphere will strengthen over the southern United States, drifting in to the Ohio River Valley.  This means temperatures should soar in to the upper 80°s to lower 90°s.  More importantly, low level moisture should return in a big way - taking the heat index back up to the middle 90°s to around 100°.  Stay tuned!

 

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