Getting cold tonight and eyeing weather system that could impact St. Patrick’s Day

A cold night coming for central Indiana.  Clouds will decrease allowing temperatures to drop.  There should be just enough wind around to keep all of us from falling in to the teens.

Forecast low temperatures Wednesday morning.

A mixture of partly to mostly cloudy skies Wednesday, along with winds shifting to the west and eventually southwest, will allow temperatures to get back in to the 40°s.

Forecast high temperatures for Wednesday afternoon.

EYEING LATE WEEK WEATHER SYSTEM

We're keeping an eye on a weather system that will initially send clouds our way and then the potential for a period of wintry mix to start the weekend.

Medium-range computer models suggest a front will move in to southwest Indiana late Thursday night in to Friday morning.  Clouds are projected to overspread central Indiana throughout the day.  Combine that with north and northeasterly winds north of the front, temperatures should remain below normal for Friday - highs in the low to mid 40°s.

Moisture is projected to move northeast Friday night in to early Saturday morning.  Where some trouble may come in to play is the timing of when precipitation arrives in central Indiana.  The potential is there for it to arrive as temperatures are below freezing at the surface.  A few thousand feet above the ground, temperatures are forecast to be 3° to 5° above freezing.  Depending on how shallow the below freezing layer will be will determine if there could be a brief period of sleet or freezing rain before changing over to all rain during the day Saturday.

Computer model projection of radar/satellite imagery Friday.

WORKING ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURE FORECAST

There remains some uncertainty regarding Saturday's temperatures.  Yesterday, I identified some of the concerns regarding the temperature forecast.  Computer models are still at odds as to how warm we could warm.

Looking closer at the forecast ensembles provided by both NOAA and the European forecast agency shows how both models  remain spread in their solutions.

Tuesday morning's European forecast agency ensemble has a 28° spread amongst the 51-members.  They range in forecast high temperatures from 35° to 63°.  Tuesday morning's American forecast ensemble (GFS) forecast spread is getting a little closer, 15°.  The members of the ensemble range from 36° to 51°.  This spread in temperatures will get narrower in the next day or two.

All of that being said, I think we are going to end up with temperatures in the low to mid 40°s Saturday.

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