Heat, humidity and storms for Labor Day

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It is going to start feeling like summer for the unofficial last day of summer – Labor Day.

A cold front is located in the northern United States Sunday evening.  The front will dive southeast and pass through central Indiana overnight Monday in to Tuesday morning.

Ahead of the cold front temperatures will surge on brisk southwest winds (gusting to 30mph).  The temperature should top out in the upper 80°s to lower 90°s in central Indiana.  I’m forecasting a high of 89° in Indianapolis.

Surface moisture will be drawn up in to the state on the southwesterly winds — taking dew points in to the middle and upper 60°s.  This will take the heat index in to the low 90°s by late afternoon.

As the cold front encounters the low-level moisture, and temperatures remain high, showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front.

Computer model projection of radar/satellite imagery for Labor Day.

Computer models suggest a line of thunderstorms will develop and move southeast through the state Monday evening.  Meaning, most of Monday will remain dry.  You should start to pay closer attention to the weather starting around 6pm.  As of this writing, it looks like the line would move in to the Indianapolis metro between 8pm-10pm.

After looking at various data from computer models, I think the best chance for severe storms will be in northwestern Indiana and northeastern Illinois.  This is subject to change as new data becomes available.  At this time, the main threat from storms appears to be damaging winds.

Where the highest chance for strong to severe storms will be Monday evening.

While the strongest storms will be nearer where the line develops, I think the line will begin to weaken once the sun sets and as it gets closer to I-70.

It should also be noted that one our of high-resolution computer models is suggesting some potential for power outages in the state.

Computer model projection of power outages through Monday night.

It appears the highest threat for this is over the northwest part of the state, it does not mean other areas will not have some outages.  It is something we’ll keep an eye on through the next 24-hours.

It is a good idea to make sure you have your devices charged up before the storms arrive in case there are outages.

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