Tracking severe weather potential and chances for sticking snow

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You're probably starting to hear some chatter at the water cooler or on social media about severe thunderstorms coming to Indiana Tuesday in to Wednesday.  Let me say, it is still early and it is far from set in stone that we will have severe thunderstorms Tuesday/Wednesday.

The Storm Prediction Center does include all of central Indiana in a "Slight Risk" for severe thunderstorms 7am Tuesday through 7am Wednesday.

After analyzing data from Sunday morning computer models, here is the area that I see having the best chance for severe thunderstorms 1pm Tuesday through 1am Wednesday.  The area highlighted is subject to change as more data becomes available.

Meteorologist John Dissauer's take on where the best chance for severe thunderstorms 1pm Tuesday through 1am Wednesday.

Meteorologist John Dissauer's take on where the best chance for severe thunderstorms 1pm Tuesday through 1am Wednesday.

It is beginning to look like highest chance for severe storms in central Indiana may occur during the pre-dawn hours Wednesday.

It is too early to get too detailed in to severe weather threats, but at this time damaging wind looks to be the primary threat.

As discussed here on last week, there are several ingredients that need to come together to produce severe thunderstorms.  Many of the ingredients are there, but some are missing.  Computer models should get a better handle on the details in the next 24 hours as the upper-level energy for the storm is now moving over the northwest United States.

Be sure to check back on and on-air on CBS4 News for updates concerning the chance for severe weather.  You can also find additional updates by following me on Twitter - @johndissauer.


While we are talking about severe thunderstorms, now is a great time to ask for your help.  The weather community is seeking volunteers to become National Weather Service trained weather spotters!  The National Weather Service in Indianapolis is now offering spotter training sessions.  The next session is scheduled for Tuesday night in North Vernon.


You can find other dates, locations and times by visiting the National Weather Service's training calendar.


As mentioned yesterday, we are tracking for a possible accumulating snow for parts of central Indiana.  Long range computer models continue to support the idea of a wrinkle in the atmosphere passing through the state and leaving snow in its wake.  Sunday morning computer models have sped up the system by 12-18 hours compared to Saturday runs.  This would bring the system through the area Thursday afternoon/night.



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