Warm start to September; Searching for fall weather

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Another warm day is coming for central Indiana Wednesday.  Our normal high temperature for this time of year is 76°.  Tuesday afternoon we hit 86°.  Wednesday temperatures should climb to the middle and upper 80°s.

Forecast high temperatures for Wednesday.

Forecast high temperatures for Wednesday.

WARMEST START IN 14 YEARS

We are off to the warmest start to September in fourteen years.  Indianapolis has been 3.6° above normal per day.

AUTUMNAL EQUINOX

An astronomical way of saying "fall".  The countdown is on for the beginning of fall.  It officially begins at 10:21am EDT Thursday.  Unfortunately, Mother Nature hasn't received the memo.  High temperatures will likely be in the upper 80°s to near 90°.

autumnal-equinox

A TASTE OF FALL

There remains some question as to when central Indiana will get its first taste of fall.  For several days long range computer models have suggested that a strong cold front will pass through central Indiana in the Sunday/Monday/Tuesday time frame.  Each day the models seem to slow the arrival by several hours.  This isn't too surprising and is frequently the case.  Models know there is "something" out there but it takes several runs to grasp the timing.

Computer models often struggle with the push of cold air - how quickly and how cold the air will be - this time of year.  Every year it seems the models try to bring the Midwest a snow storm in October.  The snow storm they suggest rarely happens.

One of our European Forecast Agency computer models is hinting that the cooler air - highs in the 60°s - may not reach central Indiana at all.

Projected lower level temperatures and upper level winds for 3pm Monday.

Projected lower level temperatures and upper level winds for 3pm Monday.

The image above is from the Operational run of the European computer model.  Notice the warm colors through the Ohio River Valley?  That suggests the front remains west of Indiana and a warm front is positioned along the Indiana/Michigan line.  With Indiana south of the warm front, this would mean we could see a warm weather to start next week.

The model does suggest cooler air arrives in the state for Tuesday - highs in the 70°s - but is short lived.

It is also interesting to note that the Climate Prediction Center has issued their 6-10 day temperature outlook.

610temp-new

They are calling for a high probability of above normal temperatures Monday, September 26 through Friday, September 30.  That would jive with the above data from the European computer model.

Stay tuned.  We'll continue to monitor and update the forecast accordingly.

7-day-pm

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