Political Prediction Market: Trump’s chances for nomination at 50%

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Donald Trump at the CNN GOP in Las Vegas. Tuesday, December 15, 2015.

WASHINGTON (Jan. 30, 2016) — Donald Trump is still leading the Republican field at a record-setting level, according to CNN’s Political Prediction Market.

The billionaire businessman recorded the highest chances ever on the Political Prediction Market for the Republican nomination with his odds at 50%.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio previously held that top spot when his chances for the nomination were at 49% in November, but he has since fallen to second place at 26%.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is third on CNN’s Political Prediction Market, with a 19% chance at the nomination.

Even though he skipped Thursday’s Fox News debate, Trump is still leading to win Iowa ahead of Monday’s caucuses. Before the debate, Trump’s odds to win the Hawkeye State were at 58%, but ticked to 61% on Thursday and has remained in the top spot since. Cruz is second at 38% for the state.

CNN’s Political Prediction Market is a game, powered by a company called Pivit, that factors polls, other elements, and allows users to predict outcomes of the 2016 election. It should not be confused with polls from real voters.

Trump made waves after a public disagreement with Fox News this week, leading him to skip the debate and instead host a veteran’s fundraiser event where he said he raised nearly $6 million.

According to the latest CNN/ORC Iowa poll, Trump holds the lead for the state at 37% support from voters, while Cruz has 26% support.

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