Indiana weather roller coaster ride about to start

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11:30PM UPDATE:  New package of computer model data is in.  It is becoming apparent that a southwest to northeast band of heavy snow – potentially 6″ to 8″ – will set up in Missouri and Illinois.

Snow IN_IL_MO Full Screen - NAM

While it is still early, I think west and northwest of Indianapolis could see 1″ to 3″ of snow.  From Indianapolis and southeast 1″ of snow could fall.

160107 Snow Forecast

Data is suggesting there could be a few narrow bands of heavier snow (up to 6″) in parts of Indiana.  It remains too early to determine the location(s) of heavier bands.  We will continue to fine tune the forecast over the next 48-hours leading up to when rain changes to snow after midnight Sunday.

5:50pm UPDATE: We are on the climb to the top of the roller coaster.  Temperatures ran 10° to 14° above normal Thursday afternoon, topping out at 49° in Indianapolis and 51° in Bloomington.

There are two weather systems we are tracking that will impact the state’s weather in the next 72 hours that will take us to the big drop.


An area of low pressure is located in Kansas/Oklahoma.  This system will bring a warm front in to central Indiana Friday.

System 1

High-resolution computer models suggest rain will arrive in central Indiana tonight, after midnight.  Specifically, I expect rain to arrive in Indianapolis between 1am and 3am.


Showers look to be widespread through the morning.  By afternoon, rain should become more scattered.


The second system is located in the southwest United States.  Energy in the upper-levels of the atmosphere will help low pressure develop at the surface in southeast New Mexico and western Texas in the next 24 hours.  The low is projected to move northeast arriving in the Midwest Saturday .

System 2

Ahead of the low rain will spread northeast in to Indiana.  There should be several dry hours Saturday before rain arrives Saturday late afternoon/evening.

18z 4km-12km RPM Regional2

Note on the image above snow developing on the western side of the system.  Very cold air from northern Canada is expected to drop in behind a cold front.  The cold front will begin to move in to Indiana late Saturday night in to Sunday morning.  As cold air arrives, rain will begin to change over to snow.  This should first begin in northwestern and western portions of Indiana.  It is still early, but I think the changeover should begin after 1am Sunday in northwestern Indiana.

18z 4km-12km RPM Regional

As cold air sweeps east, rain will quickly change over to snow for the rest of the state.

18z 4km-12km RPM Regional3

While still too early to be discussing specific numbers, it does appear that accumulating snow will be possible.  Perhaps over an inch of snow in the northern/northwestern half of the state.  Lesser amounts Indianapolis and south.  We should have a better idea of how much snow could fall Friday.

Temperatures will also take a nose-dive Sunday.  The day will likely start out in the upper 30°s and lower 40°s, but by afternoon temperatures will be in the lower to middle 20°s.  Temperatures will likely fall in to the teens late Sunday night and early Monday morning.

For continual updates concerning this weekend’s weather, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@johndissauer).

7 Day PM

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