Lake effect snow showers possible Monday

This is an archived article and the information in the article may be outdated. Please look at the time stamp on the story to see when it was last updated.

Winds will be blowing just enough to bring some moisture through central Indiana late Sunday night and through Monday afternoon.  With temperatures only reaching the upper 20°s to lower 30°s, any moisture would fall as snow.

Here’s a look at the latest high resolution data for overnight.  Along with the usual clouds and radar forecast, I’ve also included forecast surface winds.  Surface winds are important so we can try to find areas of convergence at the surface (where wind comes together).

0z 4km-12km RPM DMA w Streamlines2

At 5am (pictured above), computer models suggest a band of snow – flurries to light snow – could be falling northeast of Indianapolis, along a line from Peru to Gas City to near Muncie and New Castle.

0z 4km-12km RPM DMA w Streamlines - Explainer

 

Closer inspection shows surface winds beginning to converge in northeast-central Indiana around 9am.  Converging winds allow air – and moisture – to lift, allowing snow to develop.   Hence, bands of snow increasing in intensity.  If computer models are accurate in their projection of surface winds, we may see a few additional bands of snow developing by mid-morning.

Winds shift around to the northeast by early evening in central Indiana.  Once that happens, snow will quickly shut-off as moisture from Lake Michigan is no longer available.

0z 4km-12km RPM DMA w Streamlines23

At 5pm, you can see how FutureView has turned winds out of the northeast in north-central Indiana, cutting off snow.  The northeasterly winds will likely push a band of snow south in to central Indiana.  If this timing is accurate, this would put some snow falling in the Indianapolis metro during evening rush hour.

HOW MUCH SNOW

At this time, it doesn’t appear like there will be that much snow accumulating on the ground.  I think areas that see a light accumulation (under 1″) will be narrow/localized and dependent on where any bands develop.

Latest 4km RPM Snow Accum Zoom w Plots

Notice the bands the above forecast model shows.  Due to the difficulty in forecasting exact locations of lake effect snow bands, the bands could setup in different locations, but I want you to notice the amounts.  All less than an inch.  Also, these are totals from late Sunday night through 8pm Monday.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.