Winds will be blowing just enough to bring some moisture through central Indiana late Sunday night and through Monday afternoon. With temperatures only reaching the upper 20°s to lower 30°s, any moisture would fall as snow.
Here’s a look at the latest high resolution data for overnight. Along with the usual clouds and radar forecast, I’ve also included forecast surface winds. Surface winds are important so we can try to find areas of convergence at the surface (where wind comes together).
At 5am (pictured above), computer models suggest a band of snow – flurries to light snow – could be falling northeast of Indianapolis, along a line from Peru to Gas City to near Muncie and New Castle.
Closer inspection shows surface winds beginning to converge in northeast-central Indiana around 9am. Converging winds allow air – and moisture – to lift, allowing snow to develop. Hence, bands of snow increasing in intensity. If computer models are accurate in their projection of surface winds, we may see a few additional bands of snow developing by mid-morning.
Winds shift around to the northeast by early evening in central Indiana. Once that happens, snow will quickly shut-off as moisture from Lake Michigan is no longer available.
At 5pm, you can see how FutureView has turned winds out of the northeast in north-central Indiana, cutting off snow. The northeasterly winds will likely push a band of snow south in to central Indiana. If this timing is accurate, this would put some snow falling in the Indianapolis metro during evening rush hour.
HOW MUCH SNOW
At this time, it doesn’t appear like there will be that much snow accumulating on the ground. I think areas that see a light accumulation (under 1″) will be narrow/localized and dependent on where any bands develop.
Notice the bands the above forecast model shows. Due to the difficulty in forecasting exact locations of lake effect snow bands, the bands could setup in different locations, but I want you to notice the amounts. All less than an inch. Also, these are totals from late Sunday night through 8pm Monday.