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Warming temperatures and rain; Latest on late week ice

Warmer air is moving back to central Indiana this afternoon as a warm front lifts north across the state.

today-ind-graph

Temperatures are expected to reach the 50°s by 5pm Wednesday and the upper 50°s by 4am Thursday.

As the warm front lifts through the state, showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible.  At this time, it appears the best chance for organized activity will be between 2pm and 4pm in the Indianapolis metro.

Projected radar and satellite imagery at 2pm Wednesday.

Projected radar and satellite imagery at 2pm Wednesday.

Winds will begin to increase later today.  Sustained out of the south at 7-20mph.

Forecast wind gusts in Indianapolis.

Forecast wind gusts in Indianapolis.

Winds will begin to gust 35-45mph (or higher) by early evening.

SLICK FRIDAY-SUNDAY

Computer models continue to suggest an atmospheric setup, conducive for freezing rain (ice), later this week.

An arctic high will be positioned over the northeast United States.  A front will be just south of central Indiana.  This will allow winds to remain out of the northeast Friday through Sunday.

A warm layer of air, approximately 10,000ft above the ground, will move in over central Indiana.  The air is projected to be several degrees above freezing.  A shallow layer of cold air should be held in place with the northeasterly winds.  This should allow precipitation to fall as rain until it gets close to the ground.

winter-weather-forms-of-precipitation

It is still early to get too detailed, but know there will be a chance for freezing rain in central and southern Indiana Friday evening through Saturday and again Sunday.

Freezing rain probability of 0.01" or greater through 7am Saturday.

Freezing rain probability of 0.01" or greater through 7am Saturday.

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center says there is an 80%-90% probability of 0.01" or more freezing rain to fall Friday through 7am Saturday in the area shaded in orange in the image above.  Indianapolis is included in the 70%-80% probability.

While it doesn't sound like much, even 0.01" can create hazardous travel conditions.

We will continue to monitor forecast data and fine tune the forecast over the coming days.

7-day-am

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