Snow arrives for Thursday morning commute

Tonight we are tracking a quick hitting weather system that will arrive in central Indiana Thursday morning.

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While accumulating snow is looking likely, the amounts should not be a huge problem.  I think the biggest impact of the snow will be timing.

Unfortunately, the timing for snow isn’t ideal.  It looks to arrive for the morning commute in the Indianapolis metro.  Our latest high-resolution computer model brings snow in to the metro between 5am and 6am Thursday.

Computer model projection of radar and satellite data Thursday.

Computer model projection of radar and satellite data Thursday.

It is looking like the snow will come through in two rounds.  By mid-morning, snow would begin to taper off.  Then during the early afternoon, another surge of moisture will move in to central Indiana.  The second surge may contain more accumulating snow than the morning batch.

ACCUMULATING SNOW

As earlier mentioned, this should not be a big snow in central Indiana, but accumulating snow is likely.

Computer model projections

Computer model projections

The above graph shows four various computer models and how much snow they suggest will accumulate.  The spread is relatively close, in the 0.9″ to 1.9″ range.  I come up with an average of 1.4″ of snow from the various computer models I use to forecast snow.

Snow forecast for Thursday, January 5, 2017.

Snow forecast for Thursday, January 5, 2017.

I do believe highest snow amounts will be south of Indianapolis.  Areas from Bloomington to Columbus could see 2″ to 3″ of snow.  A few local 4″+ amounts is definitely possible.

In the Indianapolis metro, I think we will see 1″ to 2″ of snow on average.  That isn’t to say a few areas in that band could get 2.5″ or even less than 1″.  The farther north you go, the lower the amounts will be.

FREAK-OUT-METER

While the snow amounts shouldn’t be a HUGE issue, the timing of the snow will likely cause the morning – and potentially the afternoon commute – to be slower than usual.  Because of that, I have the Freak-Out-Meter set at a 2 out of 10 for Indianapolis.

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As you head south, the number climbs up to a 3 out of 10 for Bloomington and Columbus.  Further north, I have it at a low-2 out of 10 for Muncie and Lafayette where snow totals will be lower.

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Not familiar with the Freak-Out-Meter?  No worries!  You can read what it is and what it is not on this post from last year.

7 DAY FORECAST

Cold weather will stick around through the weekend.  Depending on how much snow we have on the ground, there is a chance temperatures may dip to near 0°, and possibly below 0°, in some locales Sunday morning.

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