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Weekend starts with rain/snow; heavy rains possible next week

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I am tracking a quick moving clipper that will pass through central Indiana overnight.  It will bring light rain mixed with snow showers to parts of the state.

WTTV Default

At 7pm Friday, moisture is located approximately 320-miles northwest of Indianapolis.  It will keep moving southeast and arrive after midnight.  I expect the rain/snow mix to arrive in Indianapolis between 2am-3am Saturday.

18z 4km-12km RPM DMA

Temperatures should be a few degrees above freezing from Indianapolis and south while it will be below freezing north of Indianapolis.  I think south of Indy will mainly see light rain.  From Indy and north, there could be a mix to all snow.  I don’t think we’ll see anything in the way of snow accumulation.

HEAVY MID-WEEK RAIN

Long-range computer models suggest heavy rain will be possible in the Midwest and Mississippi River Valley next week.

12z ECMWF 700mb RH w Wind Particles

High pressure develops off the southeast coast of the United States.  Low pressure develops in eastern Texas.  Between the two, southerly winds draw moisture up from the south.  Often you hear meteorologists talk about moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, but this isn’t just from the Gulf.  The moisture is projected to be drawn from the Yucatan Peninsula.

12z ECMWF 700mb RH w Wind Particles2

You will sometimes hear it called the “Maya Express” as low-level winds, acting as a conveyor, transports moisture from Mexico.  Similar setups have helped cause flash flooding in the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Mississippi Valley in the past.

7-day Rainfall projection from NOAA's Weather Prediction Center.

7-day Rainfall projection from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

The latest seven day rainfall projection by NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center suggests nearly 11″ of rain falling in Arkansas.  They also suggest 1.75″ to 4″ of rain in central Indiana through 7pm Friday, March 11.

10-Day QPF

A two computer model average suggests 3.92″ of rain for Indianapolis over the next 10-days, with the majority falling Wednesday and Thursday.  That would be 366% the normal precipitation we normally see during the same time period.

7 Day PM

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