Eyes on Saturday, Sunday for possible accumulating snow

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11:15PM UPDATE:  Minor tweaks to the snow forecast for central Indiana.

160108 Snow Forecast

We will continue to fine tune the forecast over the next 24-hours.  Make sure to check back through the weekend!

9:00PM UPDATE:  All eyes are on a developing weather system currently located over New Mexico, southeast Colorado and western Texas.  This system is expected to bring rain, snow and cold air to central Indiana Saturday and Sunday.

Satellite Target

An area of low pressure is in the process of developing in the same location.  Ahead of the low, moisture is already picking up in eastern Texas.

The low is expected to move east, then northeast towards the Midwest in the next 24 hours.

Forecast location of surface low at 10am ET Saturday.

Forecast location of surface low at 10am ET Saturday.

Moisture, in the form of rain, is expected to move in to central Indiana by late after Saturday.  Temperatures will be mild – in the 40°s and lower 50°s by afternoon.

Computer model projection of radar imagery at 9pm ET Saturday.

Computer model projection of radar imagery at 9pm ET Saturday.

Cold air is projected to move down the back side of the system changing rain to snow late Saturday night in to early Sunday morning.  The changeover should begin in northwest Indiana, moving to western Indiana and then sweeping east.

Computer model projection of radar imagery at 4am ET Sunday.

Computer model projection of radar imagery at 4am ET Sunday.

Accumulating snows will continue to fall in central Indiana until 9am-11am Sunday.  Afterwards, occasional snow showers, along with a lake effect snow band or two will be possible through late afternoon.

HOW MUCH SNOW?

Everyone wants to know how much snow we will see.  Latest thinking is 1″-3″ of snow for much of central Indiana.

160108 Snow Forecast

At this time, it appears Indianapolis could see around 2″ of snow.  Lafayette could see 3″ to 4″.  Areas west of Indianapolis – Crawfordsville and Terre Haute – have potential to receive 2″ to 3″, maybe has much as 4″.  Areas east and southeast of Indianapolis should see an inch or less.

Keep in mind, the forecast is subject to change over the next 24-hours as more data becomes available.  As I like to say, stay tuned…

FREAK-OUT-METER

It is still a little early, but here is the Freak-Out-Meter for Indianapolis and Lafayette.

Freak Out Meter - IND

Freak Out Meter - LAF

Fore more on what the Freak-Out-Meter is and what it is not check out this link.

ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES

Cold air comes in behind the system Sunday.  Temperatures will likely start in the upper 30°s early Sunday morning and fall through the day.  By late afternoon, I think central Indiana could be in the upper teens to lower 20°s.  Factor in a strong northwesterly wind and wind chill values will be down in the single digits Sunday.

7 Day PM

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