Showers possible overnight

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A few showers will be possible Sunday evening through early Monday morning (pre-dawn) as a quick upper-level wave of energy passes through the Midwest.

18z 4km-12km RPM DMA

You can see that our Futureview computer model suggests a few scattered showers around central Indiana at 1am Monday.

As low level moisture remains in place, areas of fog will once again be possible overnight in central Indiana.  Fog that develops should burn off by 10am Monday.

WET 10-DAY PERIOD

For a couple weeks computer models have been suggesting that December will get more active by middle of the month.  Data continues to support that idea.  The latest 10-day projection of precipitation for Indianapolis suggests higher than normal precipitation.  Normally the period from December 7 through December 15 would bring 0.91″ of precipitation.

10-Day QPF

A two computer model average suggests 3.18″.  That equates to 350% above normal.  I would not be surprised if the models are over-projecting precipitation amounts this far out, but it is something we will be watching over the coming days.

MID-MONTH STORM

As mentioned above, computer models have been hinting at more activity in the atmosphere starting around the middle of the month.  That looks to be the case.  Here’s a look at Sunday morning’s run of the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts’ computer model.

Computer model projection of mean sea-level pressure and 6-hour precipitation for 7pm December 13.

Computer model projection of mean sea-level pressure and 6-hour precipitation for 7pm December 13.

It, along with other medium-range computer model projections, develop an area of low pressure in the southern United States.  Data suggests moisture will be pulled up in front of the low, in the form of rain, for central Indiana.  The amount of rain will depend on thunderstorm activity in Dixie Alley as it could cut-off the moisture flow.

Cold air appears to wrap in behind the system, but at this time it appears to be a little late to the game to produce much in the way of snow.  Again, something to keep an eye on, especially if you have travel plans next weekend.

7 Day PM

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